An earlier version of this article was originally published by the Journal of Commerce. In the freight industry, the idea of cycles has become as close as there is to biblical truth. But the two most common explanations tend to overlook a third, less intuitive, reason: Inadequate data. Explanations for what drives these freight industry…
Category: Freight Research
Marketplace Update with Kevin Rutherford – Part 2: Supply
On Friday, July 10th, Convoy joined Kevin on his webinar series, Positive Matters, to discuss the current economy in regards to supply, demand, and truckload rates. In Part two of the webinar series, Kevin Rutherford and Aaron Terrazas, Convoy’s director of economic research, talked about how driver entries and exits are shaping the market, and…
The Open Road Hits High Speed
Freight Update Video | August 2020 The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street has spread to the open road. As the economy sunk into a deep recession in April and May, stock markets rallied fueling the perception of a chasm between the financial sector and what many people were experiencing in their daily lives…
Shippers Cautiously Optimistic, Rapidly Adapting to Economic Realities
Enormous uncertainties continue to loom over the horizon for the remainder of 2020, but broad sectors of the economy are already laying their plans. Despite the difficult economic climate, sustainability remains a priority — in some cases, increasingly so. In early July, we surveyed 139 shippers in Convoy’s network about their expectations for their businesses…
Marketplace Update with Kevin Rutherford – 3 Part Series
In collaboration with Kevin Rutherford on the “Let’s Truck – Positive Matters” webinar platform, Convoy presents a three part blog series covering demand, supply, and rates in the 2020 freight marketplace. For those of you who are unfamiliar, Convoy is a digital freight network operating in North America connecting carriers directly to shippers. Convoy’s sole…
Marketplace Update with Kevin Rutherford – Part 1: Demand
On Friday, July 10th, Convoy joined Kevin on his webinar series, Positive Matters, to discuss the current economy in regards to supply, demand, and truckload rates. In Part one of the webinar series, Kevin Rutherford and Aaron Terrazas, Convoy’s director of economic research, look at data on factory output, headwinds and tailwinds to the economy…
Freight Data Reveals Retailers Are Getting Ahead of the Curve
If anything, 2020 has reminded us that the world moves quickly. The U.S. Census Bureau published June Retail Sales data, which combined with Industrial Production data published yesterday by the Federal Reserve Board, provide the official pulse on two critical pillars of the economy — the industrial sector and consumer activity. Video: July Freight Market…
COVID-19 Accelerated Trucking’s Demographic Shift
Trucking industry jobs have proven more resilient than other sectors of the economy as the COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped the American economy — a trend confirmed by new employment data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning — but beneath the headline numbers, the past few months have accelerated a generational demographic…
From Crisis Management to Restructuring
Retail Sales and Industrial Production Data Retail sales and industrial production data published this morning by the Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board paint the portrait of an economy on the mend. The data showed a rebound from April — hardly a feat given that month’s historic lows — though not quite as sanguine…
Convoy’s approach to estimating and forecasting truck driver employment
The BLS’ monthly Employment Situation report includes a measure of employment in Truck Transportation businesses. However, because of the definition that BLS uses, that number excludes about half of the individuals who work as truck drivers. The difference between the Truck Transportation employment number reported by BLS and a more obvious accounting is driven by…
Trucker Jobs Increased Slightly in May, Driven by Private Fleets
Truck driver employment edged ever so slightly higher by 0.8% (30,000 drivers) in May driven entirely by gains in private fleet employment, according to Convoy estimates based on data released in this morning’s Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Convoy estimates that private fleet employment increased by 2%, while employment among…
April Industrial Production and Retail Sales: A Window Onto the “Essential”
For many U.S. households and businesses, April forced us to think hard about what’s truly “essential”. Factory output and retail sales data reported this morning by the Federal Reserve Board and Census Bureau provide a quantitative window onto those priorities. It comes as no surprise that April was a brutal month for the U.S. economy…
Freight Market Outlook: Three Questions on COVID-19 Reopening and Recovery
It has been two months since President Trump declared the national state of emergency. As states begin to reopen, questions linger around what recovery means for the freight industry. In Convoy’s mid-year market outlook for 2020, we share our latest analysis on freight rates and supply chain trends, covering the following questions: How will reopening…
Trucking Attracted Laid-Off Workers in Past Recessions: Will it This Time?
A version of this analysis originally appeared in trucks.com. During previous recessions and regional downturns, trucking recruited workers laid off from other industries. That built freight supply just at the moment when aggregate demand was typically soft. Consider what happened during two recent downturns.[1] From the start of the Great Recession in December 2007 to…
Goodyear Interview: Helping Truckers During COVID-19
As truckers transport essential supplies across our nation, Goodyear is providing roadside services and access to equipment to support America’s truckers. Blake Winterton, Senior Manager of Commercial Services at Goodyear, joins Convoy for our latest video covering how COVID-19 is impacting the freight industry. Winterton is responsible for Goodyear’s FleetHQ Service Center, a program that helps…
COVID-19 Update: What Stimulus Means for Shippers and Carriers
The United States federal government has taken unprecedented steps to support the American economy in the face of the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Support to individuals and households will go a long way to sustaining consumer spending, which in turn will maintain freight demand. But policymakers have gone well beyond direct support to…
March Factory Output Came in Like a Lion and Went Out Like a Lamb
For the U.S. industrial sector and freight industry March was true to its reputation: It came in like a lion and went out like a lamb. After showing modest signs of a rebound during the early months of Q1, freight demand fell to its lowest level in 3.5 years. The start and end of March…
Supply Chain Innovation in the COVID-19 Crisis: Interview with Dr. Anne Goodchild of the UW
With 75% of US residents self-isolating due to COVID-19, businesses across a range of industries are being forced to adapt their supply chains. Delivery companies are increasing capacity to meet unprecedented demand. Traditional businesses are shifting to delivery models to service their at-home customers. Consumers are changing how they receive and handle packages to reduce…
COVID-19 Supply Chain Impact: An interview with Flexport Chief Economist Phil Levy
Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, global trade was in turmoil. The toll of the two-year old trade war, combined with soft industrial demand abroad, was part of the reason why U.S. domestic trucking experienced soft demand in 2019. Much of the supply chain industry is looking to Chinese output for an early signal of what…
COVID-19 Freight Update: What Jobs Report Data Tell Us About Trucking
Friday morning the United States will get its first comprehensive look at how the labor market is faring amid the turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic when the Department of Labor publishes the March Employment Situation report, commonly known as the “Jobs Report”. Today we’re sharing the fourth of our twice weekly video series covering the…
