Colorado State University’s first forecasts for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season anticipate an “above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline”. They anticipate 17 named storms (versus 12.1 historical average); this is even higher than last year’s April forecast, which anticipated 16 named storms but resulted in 30 named storms. Of […]
For the second month in a row, nonfarm payroll data reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of their monthly Employment Situation Report was underwhelming. The U.S. economy gained 379,000 jobs (SA) in February 2021, coming on the heels of a disappointing January. (In retrospect, January wasn’t as disappointing as initially reported: The […]
The labor market proved more resilient in January than many had anticipated, with the unemployment rate falling to 6.5% compared to an average forecast of 6.7%. Despite an early-month surge in Covid-19 infections, the spread of new virus mutations, and political upheaval, businesses added 49,000 jobs last month according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, […]
With 2020 squarely in the rear view mirror, the freight industry is now firmly on the down slope of the long-feared parcelpocalypse (my term) or packagemaggedon (other peoples’, better, term). The tail end of returns will continue to work their way through the system, and the combination of new mobility limitations plus late December’s fiscal […]
Breaking the trend of recent months, November retail data disappointed while factory output data (released yesterday) generally beat forecasts. The combined data provide a portrait of the freight economy on the eve of the most recent wave of community lockdowns and just before the official start of the holiday shopping season Here are a couple […]
Trucking firms continued to add jobs in November according to data released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Trucking industry employment increased by 0.9% (12,700 jobs, seasonally adjusted) in November, an accelerating pace from the 0.5% (7,400) pace reported from September to October. Compared to a year ago, truck transportation employment is still […]
Retail spending took a brief breather in October, slipping slightly on its relentless upward march that began in June. The annual pace of growth in retail sales edged lower to 8.5% compared to 8.8% in September, the first year-over-year deceleration since states began to reopen after the first wave of Covid-19 induced lockdowns. But as […]
Trucking industry employment increased by 0.7% (9,600 jobs, seasonally adjusted) in October according to payroll data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — nearly matching August for the best month for job gains since the start of the pandemic and close to the monthly job gains at the last freight market peak […]
Consumer spending hit new highs in September while the industrial sector stabilized, but ultimately failed to recover its pre-crisis momentum. Data published this morning by the Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board beg the question: How durable is the economic recovery if America’s consumers are in overdrive, but its factories are stalling in second […]
The labor market recovery continued (though at a slowing pace) in September and headlines toward the end of the month suggest that the official payroll and survey data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Census Bureau may not yet capture accelerating layoffs in the travel, hospitality and recreation sectors — which are bracing […]
As the U.S. economy came to a sudden stop in March, lawmakers enacted the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), providing emergency loans to help businesses survive the mandatory closures and stay-at-home orders issued in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite some hiccups, the program was a success by many accounts. It helped businesses across the country […]
Government data released this week provided the latest official read on the state of U.S. factories and consumers — two critical pillars of freight demand. Outside seemingly omnipresent natural disaster zones, freight demand has been distinctly cooler in early September, though relative to historic norms it remains strong. As consumption and production patterns settle into a […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly Employment Situation Report is widely recognized as the most authoritative portrait of real-time economic activity. But for the freight industry, the report provides an incomplete snapshot of the state of trucker employment. This morning’s data showed a 0.7% (10,000, seasonally adjusted) increase in truck transportation jobs in August […]
An earlier version of this article was originally published by the Journal of Commerce. In the freight industry, the idea of cycles has become as close as there is to biblical truth. But the two most common explanations tend to overlook a third, less intuitive, reason: Inadequate data. Explanations for what drives these freight industry […]
Freight Update Video | August 2020 The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street has spread to the open road. As the economy sunk into a deep recession in April and May, stock markets rallied fueling the perception of a chasm between the financial sector and what many people were experiencing in their daily lives […]
Enormous uncertainties continue to loom over the horizon for the remainder of 2020, but broad sectors of the economy are already laying their plans. Despite the difficult economic climate, sustainability remains a priority — in some cases, increasingly so. In early July, we surveyed 139 shippers in Convoy’s network about their expectations for their businesses […]
If anything, 2020 has reminded us that the world moves quickly. The U.S. Census Bureau published June Retail Sales data, which combined with Industrial Production data published yesterday by the Federal Reserve Board, provide the official pulse on two critical pillars of the economy — the industrial sector and consumer activity. Video: July Freight Market […]
Trucking industry jobs have proven more resilient than other sectors of the economy as the COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped the American economy — a trend confirmed by new employment data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) this morning — but beneath the headline numbers, the past few months have accelerated a generational demographic […]
Retail Sales and Industrial Production Data Retail sales and industrial production data published this morning by the Census Bureau and the Federal Reserve Board paint the portrait of an economy on the mend. The data showed a rebound from April — hardly a feat given that month’s historic lows — though not quite as sanguine […]
The BLS’ monthly Employment Situation report includes a measure of employment in Truck Transportation businesses. However, because of the definition that BLS uses, that number excludes about half of the individuals who work as truck drivers. The difference between the Truck Transportation employment number reported by BLS and a more obvious accounting is driven by […]