About Aaron Terrazas

Aaron Terrazas

Aaron Terrazas is Director of Economic Research at Convoy where he researches and comments on freight markets and what freight reveals about the broader economy. Prior to joining Convoy, Aaron was a Senior Economist and Director of Economic Research at Zillow. Before that, he was an Economist at the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Economic Policy in Washington, D.C. He was educated at Georgetown University and Johns Hopkins University. Aaron has been a runner since age 13 and is a sucker for all endurance sports.

Posts by Aaron Terrazas:

Trucking Hiring Slows, Package Delivery Jobs Surge as Economy Approaches Full Employment

Hiring conditions in the trucking industry continued to gradually improve in September — hinting that the worst of recent labor constraints may be in the rear view mirror. For the economy as a whole, the unemployment rate dipped to 4.8 percent — just shy of full employment at historic labor market peaks (e.g., during the…

Dodging Disasters

Major natural disasters have become more frequent with accelerating global climate change. As we have seen repeatedly in recent years (see, for instance, here and here), these events can be massively disruptive for supply chains — cascading through the consumer retail and industrial sectors of the economy. In a recent Convoy survey of 165 small…

Data Deep Dive: Trucking Employment is Probably Back at Pre-Crisis Levels

Trucking industry jobs are probably back at pre-pandemic levels, despite what today’s Jobs Report suggests.

Trucking Hiring Sizzled in July, Cooler Wage Growth Might be a Good Thing

Trucking industry payrolls were up in July, but at half the pace from June. Slower wage growth might be a good thing.

Survival of the Fittest: How Convoy Data Science Used Survival Analysis to Estimate the Class 8 Truck Replacement Rate

Class 8 truck orders are one of the most important data points in freight, but conventional estimates of replacement demand are lacking in precision.

The freight labor market: Hiring doesn’t get easier from here

June jobs data confirmed that there is no easy fix to trucking’s labor market woes.

Three Data Points For Better Conversations About the Trucker Shortage

Hiring at trucking firms slowed in May according to payroll data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning. After a disappointing April, when private sector job gains were weighed down by supply chain constraints and a surprisingly tight labor market, truck transportation industry employment fell by 1,900 jobs (seasonally adjusted) in May. Trucking…

Eating-Out Caught Up With Eating-In during April for the First Time since the Pandemic Began

Americans’ spending at restaurants and bars caught up with their at-home food spending in April 2021 for the first time since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. It was a remarkable turnaround from a year ago when per-capita eating out dollars hit their lowest level…

Where did all the drivers go?

With sky-high expectations for surging job gains as the reopening of the economy accelerated, the April Jobs Report had every reason to disappoint. Employment growth was strong compared to a “normal” month over the past decade but underwhelming compared to job gains in recent months; stable unemployment, shadow unemployment and labor force participation are also…

First 2021 Hurricane Forecasts Predict Record Storms

Colorado State University’s first forecasts for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season anticipate an “above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline”. They anticipate 17 named storms (versus 12.1 historical average); this is even higher than last year’s April forecast, which anticipated 16 named storms but resulted in 30 named storms. Of…