Aaron Terrazas, Author at Convoy | Page 2 of 3

About: aterrazas@convoy.com

Aaron Terrazas is Director of Economic Research at Convoy where he researches and comments on freight markets and what freight reveals about the broader economy. Prior to joining Convoy, Aaron was a Senior Economist and Director of Economic Research at Zillow. Before that, he was an Economist at the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Economic Policy in Washington, D.C. He was educated at Georgetown University and Johns Hopkins University. Aaron has been a runner since age 13 and is a sucker for all endurance sports.

Posts by aterrazas@convoy.com:

The BLS’ monthly Employment Situation report includes a measure of employment in Truck Transportation businesses. However, because of the definition that BLS uses, that number excludes about half of the individuals who work as truck drivers.  The difference between the Truck Transportation employment number reported by BLS and a more obvious accounting is driven by […]

Truck driver employment edged ever so slightly higher by 0.8% (30,000 drivers) in May driven entirely by gains in private fleet employment, according to Convoy estimates based on data released in this morning’s Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Convoy estimates that private fleet employment increased by 2%, while employment among […]

For many U.S. households and businesses, April forced us to think hard about what’s truly “essential”. Factory output and retail sales data reported this morning by the Federal Reserve Board and Census Bureau provide a quantitative window onto those priorities.  It comes as no surprise that April was a brutal month for the U.S. economy […]

A version of this analysis originally appeared in trucks.com. During previous recessions and regional downturns, trucking recruited workers laid off from other industries. That built freight supply just at the moment when aggregate demand was typically soft. Consider what happened during two recent downturns.[1] From the start of the Great Recession in December 2007 to […]

The United States federal government has taken unprecedented steps to support the American economy in the face of the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Support to individuals and households will go a long way to sustaining consumer spending, which in turn will maintain freight demand. But policymakers have gone well beyond direct support to […]

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, global trade was in turmoil. The toll of the two-year old trade war, combined with soft industrial demand abroad, was part of the reason why U.S. domestic trucking experienced soft demand in 2019. Much of the supply chain industry is looking to Chinese output for an early signal of what […]

Friday morning the United States will get its first comprehensive look at how the labor market is faring amid the turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic when the Department of Labor publishes the March Employment Situation report, commonly known as the “Jobs Report”.  Today we’re sharing the fourth of our twice weekly video series covering the […]

This has been a rollercoaster of a week and it’s not even Friday. Financial markets recorded record losses on Monday, record gains on Tuesday, and another big increase on Wednesday. Will the proposals being considered in the nation’s capital be enough to sustain the economy while businesses are shuttered and states on lockdown? Today we’re […]

This morning the Federal Reserve Board published February Industrial Production data and the U.S. Census Bureau published February Retail Sales. During normal times, this data would provide the first official pulse on the state of freight demand. These are, of course, anything but normal times. The sudden market shift over the first half of March […]

Carrier bankruptcies over the past year have sparked some fears about whether there will be enough truck drivers when freight demand eventually rebounds. The freight industry is cyclical and the market can quickly shift. But fears that recent bankruptcies among trucking companies will prompt meaningful numbers of drivers to seek jobs in other industries may […]

An abbreviated version of this article appeared on Trucks.com in February 2020 Driver turnover is notoriously high in the freight industry — with some estimates suggesting that, on average, trucking companies see their entire driver pool change over each year. Such eye-poppingly high turnover statistics would suggest a massive labor retention crisis. In a year […]

Industrial production continued to disappoint in January, dashing late-December hopes of a new start for the U.S. economy in the new year. The sectors with the biggest trade exposure (e.g., industrial manufacturing) faltered while the sectors that rely on domestic consumption (e.g., food and beverage, furniture and appliances) were rare points of strength. Unseasonably warm […]

This week Convoy hosted a webinar looking back at the key market forces driving the freight industry in 2019, and explored how unresolved questions from the past year might shape the market going into 2020. There remain substantial uncertainties about the economic outlook for the coming year. To some degree, there always are. But for […]

Industrial activity was soft in October, posting its second consecutive year-over-year decline. Some of the results can be written off to one-off factors — the residual effects of the General Motors strike that ended mid-month, and a strong comparable for October 2018.  The economy faced a number of headwinds in September that weighed on industrial […]